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# Overnight Edition — Thursday, November 12, 2026 · 11:50 PM ET
- URL: https://www.narrativeflowintel.com/overnight-edition-thursday-november-12-2026-11-50-pm-et/
- Published: 2026-11-13T04:50:00.000Z
- Updated: 2026-11-13T05:02:47.000Z
- Author: NFI Research Desk

Thursday, November 12, 2026 | 11:50 PM ET | Overnight Edition

Overnight Intelligence — Asia Stabilises in Tokyo and Fails in Seoul: The KOSPI Hands Back a 2% Open to Close Red, the 10-Year Makes a Three-Week High at 5.14% With a 50-Basis-Point December Hike Now Priced at 14.5%, Thursday's Final Breadth Lands Decisively Negative, and the Senate Banking Committee Puts Huang and Lutnick on a December 3 Testimony Track — While Thursday's Cboe Book Is Still Unpublished Four Hours After Its Scheduled Release

Options Flow → Market Structure → Price Action → Narrative

🔴 NEW ALERT — material new developments in the overnight window, with every regime and severity grade held. Asia has now been scored on developed marks, as the timing rule requires, and its verdict is split in the way that matters most for this regime: **Tokyo stabilised** — the Nikkei 225 closed Friday at **61,351.25, +0.87%** on this desk's retrieval, reversing Thursday's −0.70% — while **Seoul failed its follow-through test**: the KOSPI opened about **2% higher**, traded to 5,452.41 at its high, and **closed at 5,308.77, −0.64%**, a full intraday reversal of the morning's recovery bid ([investingLive — Asia-Pacific market news: Fed hike bets ripple through Asia](https://investinglive.com/news/investinglive-asia-pacific-market-news-fed-hike-bets-ripple-through-asia/?ref=narrativeflowintel.com); [TradingKey — Asian stocks post mixed results amid Nvidia leadership turmoil, Anthropic IPO buzz](https://www.tradingkey.com/news/economic-indicator/262303811-fxstr?ref=narrativeflowintel.com)). Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed **23,786.48, −0.92%**; Shanghai edged **+0.22%**. An early Reuters snapshot that had the KOSPI **+2.35%** and the Nikkei **+1.4%** mid-session ([Reuters — Stocks recover from Nvidia whiplash, dollar climbs with US yields](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-11-13/?ref=narrativeflowintel.com)) is recorded here as exactly that — a mid-session snapshot, superseded for Seoul by the close: the recovery was real at midday and gone by the bell, which is the failed-catalyst pattern expressed in an index rather than a single name. The rates leg, meanwhile, tightened again overnight: the benchmark 10-year rose in Asian trade to **5.1433%, a three-week high**, the 2-year peaked at **4.8920%, a one-month high**, and the CME FedWatch probability of an outsized **50-basis-point December hike stood at 14.5%, up from zero a week ago** ([Reuters — Stocks recover from Nvidia whiplash, dollar climbs with US yields](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-11-13/?ref=narrativeflowintel.com)). A jumbo hike is not the base case — a 25-basis-point hike carries the balance of the pricing — but a tail that was priced at zero seven days ago is now a live, quoted probability on the eve of a hot-consensus PPI, and that is a narrative turn, not a continuation. Thursday's final breadth has also now landed, and it is worse than the closing price proxies implied: NYSE advancers **583** against **2,143** decliners (3.7-to-1), Nasdaq advancers **1,163** against **3,741** decliners (3.2-to-1), on Briefing.com's closing wrap ([WaveRider — Market Summary — Post market — 2026-11-12](https://www.waverider.ai/market-analysis/market-summary-post-market-2026-11-12/?ref=narrativeflowintel.com)). The political file formalised in parallel: Senate Banking Committee Chairman **Tim Scott sent letters Thursday to Jensen Huang and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick asking both to testify, with a December 3 hearing in view** ([Reuters — Stocks recover from Nvidia whiplash, dollar climbs with US yields](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-11-13/?ref=narrativeflowintel.com); [USA Today — Congress wants answers after Trump ally Huang caught in alleged spying scandal](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/11/12/trump-huang-congress-investigation-spy/92750160007/?ref=narrativeflowintel.com)), House Foreign Affairs Chair Brian Mast said Huang has agreed to testify ahead of Thanksgiving, and Attorney General Todd Blanche said the Justice Department is investigating whether Alice Huang is a spy and has reached no conclusion. And the cycle's first assigned task remains unfulfilled by its publisher, not by this desk: **Thursday's Cboe put/call book, scheduled for 20:00 ET, was still not present on the directly checked YCharts series at 23:50 ET** — the latest published book remains Wednesday's (total **0.92**, equity **0.59**, SPX **1.08**) ([YCharts — CBOE Total Put/Call Ratio](https://ycharts.com/indicators/total%5Fputcall%5Fratio?ref=narrativeflowintel.com); [YCharts — CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio](https://ycharts.com/indicators/cboe%5Fequity%5Fput%5Fcall%5Fratio?ref=narrativeflowintel.com)). The resignation session's options-flow verdict therefore stays **DATA UNAVAILABLE** for a second consecutive edition and is carried, unscored and labelled, until the book publishes. Market regime **RED** (maintained), sector regime **RED** (maintained), sector severity **CRITICAL** (maintained). Leadership Exhaustion Score **5/6** (Δ **0**). De-escalation remains **withheld** — Asia's split session fills no gate, and its Seoul leg actively argues the other way. Escalation is also **withheld**: the VIX closed Thursday at 18.70, credit stayed orderly, U.S. futures are modestly green overnight (+0.2% or more on both majors per Reuters), and no forced selling is documented anywhere in this cycle's sources. FORCED LIQUIDATION DETECTED stays INACTIVE — NOT ESTABLISHED. No new upstream report this cycle (newest upstream email id unchanged since October 29); this edition is this desk's own synthesis.

**Engine state:** market\_regime RED (maintained) | sector\_regime RED (maintained) | sector\_severity CRITICAL (maintained) | Overall risk 🔴 RED (maintained) | Semiconductor risk 🔴 CRITICAL (maintained — SMH closed Thursday at 501.73, below its 20-day average of 520.79; SOXX 154.99, below its 157.59; Asia's semi recovery faded in Seoul) | Market-structure stress 🟠 ELEVATED-HIGH (maintained — final Thursday breadth decisively negative on retrieved counts; 10-year at a three-week high in Asia; credit orderly) | Global recovery 🔴 STALLED (maintained — Tokyo stabilised, Seoul reversed a 2% open to a red close, Hong Kong fell; EURO STOXX 50 futures −0.37% in Asia) | Forced U.S. liquidation ⚪ UNCONFIRMED (maintained) | Selling absorption 🟡 BAD NEWS ABSORPTION — LEADER-ONLY (maintained in scope — no new index-level evidence overnight) | FLOW ABSORPTION ❌ NOT MET (maintained — Thursday's book unpublished at this edition's check) | Precursor overlay: 1 of 5 active (unchanged — see §2)

## Executive Intelligence Summary

1. **Asia's verdict, scored on closes: stabilisation in Tokyo, failed follow-through in Seoul, continued pressure in Hong Kong (CONFIRMED closes on this desk's retrieval; mid-session wires recorded as snapshots).** Nikkei 225 **61,351.25 (+0.87%)** — a genuine reversal of Thursday's decline, led by financials and technology with Advantest up more than 5% and Tokyo Electron up almost 3% in the morning wires, SoftBank the notable drag at −3% or more. KOSPI **5,308.77 (−0.64%)** after opening near **+2%** and printing a 5,452.41 session high — SK Hynix down more than 2% and Samsung Electronics off about 0.6% in afternoon trade, Naver down about 2.75–3% as a direct Nvidia customer read-through, while the Kosdaq held a gain of about 1.5% ([investingLive — Asia-Pacific market news: Fed hike bets ripple through Asia](https://investinglive.com/news/investinglive-asia-pacific-market-news-fed-hike-bets-ripple-through-asia/?ref=narrativeflowintel.com)). Hang Seng **23,786.48 (−0.92%)**, Shanghai Composite **+0.22%** to 3,663.71, MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan **+0.26%** at the Reuters mid-session snapshot after Thursday's −1.3% ([Reuters — Stocks recover from Nvidia whiplash, dollar climbs with US yields](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-11-13/?ref=narrativeflowintel.com)). The session's information content is the Seoul shape: a 2% recovery open that could not hold four hours is not global recovery — it is the same bid-that-arrives-early-and-leaves-early pattern Cisco printed in U.S. after-hours, now at index scale.
2. **The cost of capital made new highs overnight, and the jumbo-hike tail is now priced (CONFIRMED as market pricing and yield prints).** The 10-year touched **5.1433%** in Asian trade, its highest in three weeks and above Thursday's 5.103% cash close; the 2-year peaked at **4.8920%**, a one-month high; the dollar was on track for a **+0.9% weekly gain, its biggest in more than a month**, with the yen languishing near 160 ([Reuters — Stocks recover from Nvidia whiplash, dollar climbs with US yields](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-11-13/?ref=narrativeflowintel.com)). CME FedWatch put the December 50-basis-point probability at **14.5%, up from zero a week ago**, with the 25-basis-point hike carrying the remainder and a hold priced at zero — a distribution consistent with the week's earlier prints of 9.1–15.3% across chains after Tuesday's hot CPI ([BabyPips — Hot October CPI Puts a Bigger Fed Hike on the Table](https://www.babypips.com/analysis/headline-us-cpi-october-fed-hike-december-2026-11-11?ref=narrativeflowintel.com)). Capital Group's fixed-income desk, quoted by Reuters, put the path plainly: three hikes are priced over the next twelve months, and continued hot prints make three more entirely possible. Friday's 08:30 ET PPI now prints into a curve that has already moved against the regime before the data arrives.
3. **Thursday's final breadth is in — and it confirms the distribution read at full strength (CONFIRMED as reported by Briefing.com's closing wrap).** NYSE **583 advancers / 2,143 decliners**, Nasdaq **1,163 / 3,741**, S&P 500 components **137 up / 361 down** on a separate closing count ([WaveRider — Market Summary — Post market — 2026-11-12](https://www.waverider.ai/market-analysis/market-summary-post-market-2026-11-12/?ref=narrativeflowintel.com)). One all-listed aggregator count put 52-week new lows at **977** against **297** new highs, with 35% of stocks above their 50-day average — aggregator-only, named in text, unlinked, PROVISIONAL, and directionally consistent with the exchange counts. The evening edition scored breadth on price proxies (RSP −0.87%, IWM −1.64%) and flagged the finals as missing; the finals, when they arrived, were worse than the proxies. Breadth component of the Leadership Exhaustion Score stays YES with its evidence upgraded from provisional to retrieved.
4. **The congressional track moved from request to calendar (CONFIRMED letters and statements; hearing dates as reported).** Senate Banking Chairman Tim Scott's Thursday letters ask **both Huang and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick** to testify over the Nvidia developments, with **December 3** the reported committee date ([USA Today — Congress wants answers after Trump ally Huang caught in alleged spying scandal](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/11/12/trump-huang-congress-investigation-spy/92750160007/?ref=narrativeflowintel.com)); House Foreign Affairs Chair Brian Mast said Huang has **agreed to testify before Congress ahead of Thanksgiving**, likely under oath and transcribed; Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer demanded a full accounting of what the administration knew and when; Attorney General Todd Blanche said at a November 12 press conference that the Justice Department is investigating whether Alice Huang is a spy and **has not reached a conclusion**. Separately, reporting carried overnight holds that Nvidia's internal investigation **continues after Huang's exit** and that interim CEO Colette Kress has called a company meeting for **November 18 at 9 AM PT — the day after the November 17 earnings print** (aggregator-carried reporting of The Information and Reuters respectively; classified CONFIRMED AS REPORTED at the chain level, detail PROVISIONAL). The governance file is no longer a November 18 briefing request alone; it is a two-chamber testimony track with the Commerce Secretary inside its scope.
5. **The Street's first framing notes cut both ways (CONFIRMED AS REPORTED).** JPMorgan's analysts wrote that Huang's departure "leaves a vacuum that will be difficult to fill," that existing commitments are not assumed to change, but that new deals could take longer or require more compensation — and that the bigger implications sit with **GPU financing and infrastructure deals** in which Nvidia acts as supplier, investor or contractual support ([Reuters — Stocks recover from Nvidia whiplash, dollar climbs with US yields](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-11-13/?ref=narrativeflowintel.com)). Citi's specialist-sales desk argued competitors — **AMD, Arista, Broadcom** — could benefit as investors look for alternatives, the analyst version of Thursday's cash rotation (AMD +5.86%, AVGO +5.54% on official closes) ([Reuters — Stocks recover from Nvidia whiplash, dollar climbs with US yields](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-11-13/?ref=narrativeflowintel.com); [USA Today — Nvidia needs new front man to stay on top after Huang's ousting, experts say](https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2026/11/12/what-does-jensen-huangs-resignation-mean-for-ai/92739989007/?ref=narrativeflowintel.com)). Neither note changes a gate; together they confirm the rotation is now the consensus frame, which historically is when rotation trades get crowded rather than when they start.
6. **Thursday's Cboe book is still unpublished at this desk's 23:50 ET direct check — a publisher lag, recorded as such (CONFIRMED check; series values carried at Wednesday).** The YCharts pages for the total, equity and SPX series, retrieved this cycle, still list **November 11** as the latest period (total 0.92, equity 0.59, SPX 1.08; next release shown as November 12, 20:00 EST) ([YCharts — CBOE Total Put/Call Ratio](https://ycharts.com/indicators/total%5Fputcall%5Fratio?ref=narrativeflowintel.com); [YCharts — CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio](https://ycharts.com/indicators/cboe%5Fequity%5Fput%5Fcall%5Fratio?ref=narrativeflowintel.com); [YCharts — SPX Put/Call Ratio](https://ycharts.com/indicators/cboe%5Fspx%5Fput%5Fcall%5Fratio?ref=narrativeflowintel.com)). This is the second consecutive edition in which the resignation session's flow cannot be scored. The desk does not fill the gap with intraday prints or inference: FLOW ABSORPTION stays NOT MET, the bearish-positioning component stays NO, and the book — when it publishes — will be scored in the next edition as a change, with its publication lag noted.
7. **Risk-appetite gauges deteriorated overnight while equity futures held modestly green (timestamped observations).** Bitcoin broke below **$70,000**, trading near **$68,600** on this desk's latest bar after Wednesday's \~$74,000 close and Thursday evening's \~$70,900 — a slide of roughly 6% in the Asia wrap's framing ([investingLive — Asian stocks steady as Nikkei gains 1.4%, Hang Seng slips on Nvidia leadership fallout](https://investinglive.com/stock-market-update/asian-stocks-steady-as-nikkei-gains-1-4-hang-seng-slips-on-nvidia-leadership-fallout/?ref=narrativeflowintel.com)). Brent eased to **$95.45 (−0.3% or more)** and WTI to **$88.39** — the geopolitical premium held with a slight overnight give-back ([Reuters — Stocks recover from Nvidia whiplash, dollar climbs with US yields](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-11-13/?ref=narrativeflowintel.com)); spot gold recovered **+0.3% to $3,888.01** after Thursday's slam. Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures rose **more than 0.2% each** in Asian trade while EURO STOXX 50 futures fell **0.37%** — a modestly green U.S. overnight tape sitting on top of a higher curve, a broken crypto gauge, and a Seoul close that already faded a stronger open than futures are currently offering.

**Primary diagnosis:** Overnight, the regime acquired no new damage in U.S. prices and no relief anywhere that counts. Asia demonstrated the regime's central mechanic in index form — recovery bids arrive, are priced, and are handed back inside the session (Seoul +2% to −0.64%) — while the rates layer, the regime's binding constraint, extended: a three-week high in the 10-year, a one-month high in the 2-year, and a December jumbo-hike tail priced at 14.5% where zero stood a week ago. Thursday's completed breadth upgraded the distribution evidence from proxies to counts, the political file acquired a December 3 Senate Banking date with the Commerce Secretary inside it, and the one dataset that could have spoken for the options layer — Thursday's Cboe book — remains unpublished by its source. RED / RED / CRITICAL maintained; LES 5/6, unchanged; Friday 08:30 ET PPI is the next vote, and the curve has already voted early.

## §1 Options Flow → 🟡 THE BOOK IS STILL DARK: THURSDAY'S SERIES UNPUBLISHED AT THE 23:50 ET CHECK

The four Cboe series are kept separate, as always. The latest published book remains **Wednesday, November 11**; Thursday's book was scheduled for **20:00 ET** and had **not appeared on the directly retrieved series pages at 23:50 ET** — the second consecutive edition carrying the resignation session's flow as DATA UNAVAILABLE. This desk scores books that have published; it does not reconstruct them from intraday tape.

| Series (latest published: Wed, Nov 11) | Reading             | Interpretation                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       |
| -------------------------------------- | ------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| Total put/call                         | **0.92** (Tue 0.95) | Below 1.0; no broad defensive surge in the last published book                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       |
| Equity put/call                        | **0.59** (Tue 0.77) | Single-name defence fully normalised into Wednesday's rally — exactly the 21-day average ([Schaeffer's — Nasdaq Futures Sink as Nvidia Woes Resume](https://secure.schaeffersresearch.com/content/ezines/2026/11/12/nasdaq-futures-sink-as-nvidia-woes-resume?ref=narrativeflowintel.com): 2.5M calls / 1.5M puts Wednesday; equity ratio 0.59, 21-day average 0.59) |
| Index put/call                         | **1.05** (Tue 1.02) | Portfolio-level hedging persists above 1.0 — the standing structural hedge                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           |
| SPX put/call                           | **1.08** (Tue 1.11) | SPX hedging steady in the last published book ([YCharts — SPX Put/Call Ratio](https://ycharts.com/indicators/cboe%5Fspx%5Fput%5Fcall%5Fratio?ref=narrativeflowintel.com))                                                                                                                                                                                            |

Source: [YCharts — CBOE Total Put/Call Ratio](https://ycharts.com/indicators/total%5Fputcall%5Fratio?ref=narrativeflowintel.com); [YCharts — CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio](https://ycharts.com/indicators/cboe%5Fequity%5Fput%5Fcall%5Fratio?ref=narrativeflowintel.com); [YCharts — SPX Put/Call Ratio](https://ycharts.com/indicators/cboe%5Fspx%5Fput%5Fcall%5Fratio?ref=narrativeflowintel.com).

The equity-vs-index distinction still carries the last published read: single-name positioning normalised into strength while the portfolio hedge never left. What the overnight adds is only the standing cross-checks, and they are unchanged in character: Thursday's SKEW closed **150.16 (+0.72%)** — tail demand maintained, not chased — inside a VIX of **18.70** in contango (VIX9D **17.51**) with VVIX at **96.71**. Sector/constituent ratios (SOXX / SMH / MAGS): no fresh publication — **DATA UNAVAILABLE**, carried at last published values in state. High put volume, wherever it is later found in Thursday's book, will not be read as directional shorting on its own: hedges, spreads, dealer inventory and closing trades print the same tape, and the equity/index split — not the headline total — is where this desk will look first when the book lands.

**§1 verdict:** FLOW WARNING — INDEX LEG ONLY, maintained, on a stale-by-schedule book. The flow layer has now been silent for the two editions covering the largest single-name session of the year; that silence is the publisher's lag, is labelled as such in Missing Evidence, and limits the confidence of every flow-dependent claim in this edition.

## §2 Market Structure → 🟠 STRESS ELEVATED-HIGH: FINAL BREADTH CONFIRMS DISTRIBUTION; THE CURVE EXTENDS OVERNIGHT

The overnight's structural content is confirmation arriving late and relief arriving nowhere. Thursday's exchange counts — retrieved this cycle after the close and evening editions carried price proxies — settle the breadth question the session left open: decliners beat advancers **3.7-to-1 on the NYSE and 3.2-to-1 on Nasdaq** (Briefing.com closing wrap via [WaveRider — Market Summary — Post market — 2026-11-12](https://www.waverider.ai/market-analysis/market-summary-post-market-2026-11-12/?ref=narrativeflowintel.com)), against an index decline of only −0.35%. That gap between the headline index and the average stock is the distribution signature this desk has scored all week, now on counts rather than inference. The all-listed new-low figure carried by one aggregator (977 new lows vs 297 new highs) is held PROVISIONAL and unlinked, but nothing in the retrieved exchange data contradicts its direction. Credit stayed orderly on Thursday's final prints (HYG −0.48%, LQD −0.88% — duration-led, no spread event), and it has no overnight cash session to update; the rates market, which does trade, used the overnight to extend: 10-year **5.1433%** (three-week high), 2-year **4.8920%** (one-month high) in Asian trade ([Reuters — Stocks recover from Nvidia whiplash, dollar climbs with US yields](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-11-13/?ref=narrativeflowintel.com)). Institutional classification is unchanged and now tested across a cash session, an earnings evening and an Asia session: **VOLUNTARY de-risking / rotation** (leader and satellites sold in cash, rivals bid, Asia's semi bid faded rather than forced). The structural/mechanical vulnerability — concentrated leadership under a founder transition whose investigation continues post-exit, semis below their 20-day averages (SMH 501.73 vs 520.79; SOXX 154.99 vs 157.59), SPY and QQQ both below theirs on Thursday closes, a >5% cost of capital making new highs in Asia, and a congressional testimony track now running to December 3 — remains classified as vulnerability, not liquidation. No prime-broker action, margin event, forced block sale or compelled unwind is documented in this cycle's sources. **Precursor overlay: 1 of 5 active (unchanged)**: (i) SMH below its 20-DMA — active; (ii) VIX rising while SPX rises — inactive; (iii) breadth deteriorating while headline indices hold — inactive on its own terms Thursday (indices fell with breadth; the overlay's condition is divergence, and Thursday was concordance); (iv) QQQ 5-session underperformance vs SPY — inactive (QQQ +6.35% vs SPY +3.29% over five sessions on Thursday closes); (v) VIX above 20 — inactive (18.70).

### Signal Engine

| Signal                              | Status                       | Evidence                                                                                                                                             | Change                                   |
| ----------------------------------- | ---------------------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------------------------- |
| FLOW WARNING                        | ACTIVE — INDEX LEG ONLY      | Wed book equity 0.59 normalised; index 1.05 / SPX 1.08 persist; SKEW Thu 150.16 (+0.72%); Thu book still unpublished at 23:50 ET check               | Maintained — book lag extends            |
| DISTRIBUTION SUSPECTED              | ACTIVE                       | Final Thu counts retrieved: NYSE 583/2,143, Nasdaq 1,163/3,741; RSP −0.87%, IWM −1.64% on closes                                                     | Maintained — evidence upgraded to counts |
| LEADERSHIP EXHAUSTION               | ACTIVE                       | LES 5/6 (below); Asia semi follow-through failed in Seoul; Nov 17 print under an interim team                                                        | Maintained                               |
| HEADLINE RISK — FLOW NOT CONFIRMING | RESOLVED for the board story | The headline is a filed corporate act with a testimony track; price action is rates-led                                                              | Maintained                               |
| BAD NEWS ABSORPTION                 | ACTIVE — LEADER-ONLY         | NVDA held its official close Thu and added after hours; no new index-level absorption evidence overnight (Seoul's fade argues against broadening it) | Maintained in scope                      |
| ACCUMULATION SUSPECTED              | WATCH — RIVALS ONLY          | AMD +5.86% / AVGO +5.54% Thu closes stand; Citi desk note echoes the rotation frame; no broad accumulation evidence                                  | Maintained                               |
| FLOW ABSORPTION                     | NOT MET                      | Thu book unpublished at this edition's check                                                                                                         | Maintained                               |
| MARKET-STRUCTURE STRESS             | ACTIVE — ELEVATED-HIGH       | Final breadth decisively negative; 10Y at a three-week high in Asia (5.1433%); 50bp Dec odds 14.5%; credit orderly                                   | Maintained                               |
| FORCED LIQUIDATION DETECTED         | INACTIVE — NOT ESTABLISHED   | No direct documentation in any source this cycle                                                                                                     | Maintained                               |
| BLOCK-TRANSFER ABSORBED             | NOT VERIFIED                 | No documented block transfer to absorb                                                                                                               | Maintained                               |
| LIQUIDATION ABSORBED                | NOT VERIFIED                 | No documented forced selling exists to have ended                                                                                                    | Maintained                               |
| NARRATIVE REVERSAL                  | WATCH                        | Tokyo stabilised; Seoul reversed; rates narrative tightened further — no reversal in the dominant driver                                             | Maintained                               |

### Leadership Exhaustion Score: **5/6** (Δ 0 vs the evening edition) — confidence HIGH on price marks (Thursday official closes; Friday Asia closes on this desk's retrieval) and on the retrieved exchange breadth counts; MODERATE on flow (Thursday book unpublished at edition time — second consecutive cycle) and on the aggregator new-low count (PROVISIONAL)

1. **Relative momentum deterioration — YES.** NVDA −4.34% on Thursday's official close, −16.96% over five sessions, far below its 20-day average; SMH and SOXX both closed below theirs; Asia's semi complex faded its morning bid in Seoul (SK Hynix −2% or more in afternoon trade).
2. **Semiconductor / market breadth weakness — YES — evidence upgraded.** Final Thursday counts: NYSE decliners 3.7-to-1, Nasdaq 3.2-to-1, S&P components 137 up / 361 down; SMH below its 20-DMA. Wednesday's completed baseline is no longer the freshest breadth fact; Thursday's own counts are worse.
3. **Abnormal distribution / selling pressure — YES.** The full-session record stands (a −14.3% intraday low in the leader, satellites sold at the close, Nebius −16.84% official), now corroborated by final exchange breadth rather than price proxies alone.
4. **Bearish options positioning — NO.** Wednesday's published book normalised (equity 0.59); SKEW's Thursday uptick (+0.72% to 150.16) is maintenance-grade; Thursday's book is unpublished and cannot flip this either way until it appears.
5. **Failed positive-catalyst reactions — YES (narrowed evidence, unchanged).** Nebius's closing fact stands (−16.84% on a beat); Thursday evening's pair (AMAT held, CSCO faded) stopped the pattern extending without producing follow-through; overnight, Seoul's index-level fade is the same shape in a different market and is recorded as corroborating colour, not as a new component input.
6. **Loss of upward price acceleration — YES.** Thursday's official shape stands: SPX recovered its opening loss by midday and closed −0.35%; overnight futures (+0.2% or more) are a timestamped observation, not a cash recovery.

**Absorption assessment:** the evidence supports BAD NEWS ABSORPTION at **leader-only scope**, unchanged — the week's worst headline stopped making lower lows in the name it was about on Thursday. Overnight offered a chance to broaden that claim to index level and declined it: Seoul's fade is what a market that is *not* absorbing bad news looks like at index scale. FLOW ABSORPTION remains NOT MET (Thursday flow unpublished at edition time). LIQUIDATION ABSORBED remains NOT VERIFIED (no documented forced selling exists to have ended). The crude leg's narrow absorption (a confirmed EIA build shrugged off on a geopolitical premium) stands as previously scored; Brent's overnight ease to $95.45 changes nothing about it.

## §3 Price Action → 🔴 ASIA SCORED ON CLOSES: TOKYO REVERSES, SEOUL REVERSES BACK, HONG KONG SLIPS — U.S. FUTURES MODESTLY GREEN INTO THE PPI

| Instrument                    | Mark                                                                | As-of                         | Verdict                                                                  |
| ----------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------- | ----------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| S&P 500                       | 7,592.40 (−0.35%) — official close                                  | Thu close                     | Recovery surrendered (confirmed)                                         |
| Nasdaq 100                    | 28,289.19 (−0.30%)                                                  | Thu close                     | Same arc, confirmed                                                      |
| Dow                           | 52,297.09 (−0.36%)                                                  | Thu close                     | Confirmed red                                                            |
| Russell 2000 / IWM            | 2,799.06 (−1.66%) / −1.64%                                          | Thu close                     | Breadth's weakest leg, confirmed                                         |
| Final breadth (NYSE / Nasdaq) | 583 adv / 2,143 decl · 1,163 adv / 3,741 decl                       | Thu close (Briefing.com wrap) | Distribution confirmed on counts                                         |
| NVDA                          | Close $166.19 (−4.34%), 740M shares; AH into \~$167.6–167.9         | Thu close / evening AH        | Repair held Thursday; overnight read is Asia read-through (Naver −2.75%) |
| SMH / SOXX / SOXL             | −1.03% / −0.26% / −0.76%                                            | Thu close                     | Complex red, below 20-DMAs                                               |
| VIX / VIX9D / VVIX            | 18.70 (+6.92%) / 17.51 / 96.71                                      | Thu close (official)          | Contango intact; bid contained                                           |
| SKEW                          | 150.16 (+0.72%)                                                     | Thu print                     | Tail hedge maintained, not chased                                        |
| HYG / LQD / TLT               | −0.48% / −0.88% / −1.48%                                            | Thu close                     | Orderly, rates-led                                                       |
| 10Y UST                       | 5.103% Thu close → **5.1433% Asia high**                            | Thu close / Fri Asia          | Three-week high overnight — binding constraint extends                   |
| 2Y UST                        | **4.8920% Asia peak**                                               | Fri Asia                      | One-month high                                                           |
| Nikkei 225                    | 61,351.25 (**+0.87%**) — close                                      | Fri close                     | Reversed Thu's −0.70%; stabilisation, Tokyo only                         |
| KOSPI                         | 5,308.77 (**−0.64%**) — close, after a \~+2% open and 5,452.41 high | Fri close                     | Full intraday reversal — follow-through FAILED                           |
| Hang Seng / Shanghai          | 23,786.48 (−0.92%) / 3,663.71 (+0.22%)                              | Fri close                     | HK pressure persists; mainland flat-green                                |
| ES / NQ futures               | +0.2% or more each                                                  | Fri Asia trade (Reuters)      | Modestly green; below Seoul's faded open in size                         |
| EURO STOXX 50 futures         | −0.37%                                                              | Fri Asia trade (Reuters)      | Europe indicated soft pre-open                                           |
| Brent / WTI                   | $95.45 / $88.39 (−0.3% or more each)                                | Fri Asia (Reuters)            | Premium held, slight give-back                                           |
| Gold (spot)                   | $3,888.01 (+0.3%)                                                   | Fri Asia (Reuters)            | Stabilising after Thu's slam                                             |
| Bitcoin                       | \~$68,600 — below $70,000                                           | Fri latest bar                | Risk gauge breaking down overnight                                       |

Recovery quality, scored at the grade the evidence earned: **Asia supplied the overnight's only completed sessions, and their joint verdict is stabilisation without follow-through.** Tokyo's +0.87% close is a real reversal of its own Thursday decline and is scored as such; it is also the session in which the Nvidia exposure is most indirect. The session with the most direct AI-supply-chain exposure — Seoul, home to SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics and Naver — opened with the week's strongest recovery bid and closed red, with the semi names leading the fade in afternoon trade ([investingLive — Asia-Pacific market news: Fed hike bets ripple through Asia](https://investinglive.com/news/investinglive-asia-pacific-market-news-fed-hike-bets-ripple-through-asia/?ref=narrativeflowintel.com)). Under this desk's rules an index rebound alone never confirms recovery in any case; a rebound that does not survive its own session confirms less. Europe has not opened at this edition's timestamp (23:50 ET is pre-dawn in Europe); its only mark is the −0.37% EURO STOXX 50 futures indication in Asian trade, recorded as an indication, not a session. U.S. futures at +0.2% or more are likewise an observation into an 08:30 ET data print, not a verdict.

## §4 News Narratives

### §4.1 The jumbo-hike tail — from zero to a quoted probability in a week (CONFIRMED as market pricing)

Event time: the repricing dates to Tuesday's hot October CPI (headline +0.4% m/m vs +0.3% expected, core +0.3% for a third straight month); publication time for this cycle's freshest print is the Friday Asian session, where Reuters carried the CME FedWatch December distribution — **50-basis-point hike 14.5%, up from zero a week ago**, 25-basis-point hike carrying the balance, hold at zero ([Reuters — Stocks recover from Nvidia whiplash, dollar climbs with US yields](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-11-13/?ref=narrativeflowintel.com)). The week's chain of prints brackets the move rather than contradicting it: 9.1% in one early chain, 11–11.5% in post-CPI chains, 14.7–15.3% in others ([BabyPips — Hot October CPI Puts a Bigger Fed Hike on the Table](https://www.babypips.com/analysis/headline-us-cpi-october-fed-hike-december-2026-11-11?ref=narrativeflowintel.com)). Governor Waller had pre-committed the logic before the CPI — a core print at or above 0.3% puts 50 basis points on the table — and Bank of America's desk told clients the data "all but lock in" a December hike while keeping its own forecast at 25\. The narrative content for this regime is precise: the market is no longer debating *whether* the Fed tightens in December, nor even only *by how much* — it is pricing a non-trivial probability that the tightening arrives at double size, hours before the last inflation print (Friday's PPI) that could enlarge or shrink that probability. No motive is inferred from any official's timing; the scored facts are the pricing, the yields, and the on-record reaction functions.

### §4.2 The testimony track — two chambers, two dates, the Commerce Secretary inside the scope (CONFIRMED as reported)

Event times are Thursday, November 12, across the U.S. session; the wires consolidated overnight. Senate Banking Committee Chairman **Tim Scott sent letters Thursday to Huang and to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick** — who oversees export controls — asking them to appear, with **December 3** reported as the committee's testimony date ([Reuters — Stocks recover from Nvidia whiplash, dollar climbs with US yields](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-11-13/?ref=narrativeflowintel.com); [USA Today — Congress wants answers after Trump ally Huang caught in alleged spying scandal](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/11/12/trump-huang-congress-investigation-spy/92750160007/?ref=narrativeflowintel.com)). House Foreign Affairs Chair **Brian Mast** said Huang has agreed to testify ahead of Thanksgiving, likely under oath with a transcript, the date still being negotiated; House China Select Committee Chair John Moolenaar's parallel briefing track stands from earlier editions. Senator Schumer demanded a "full accounting" of what the administration knew about the alleged spying and how it intersected with last year's decision to allow advanced-chip sales to China. Attorney General **Todd Blanche**, at a November 12 press conference, said the Justice Department is currently investigating whether Alice Huang is a spy and **has not reached a conclusion** — the cycle's cleanest statement of the evidentiary position: the underlying espionage allegation remains **NOT ESTABLISHED** by the investigating authority itself. Reporting carried overnight also holds that Nvidia's board investigation **continues after the resignation** and that interim CEO Kress has scheduled a company meeting for **November 18** (aggregator-carried; CONFIRMED AS REPORTED at chain level). A New York Times line carried in the same reporting — that the President was briefed roughly a year ago on the intelligence and did not act — is a single-paper attribution about a principal's knowledge, recorded here as CONFIRMED AS REPORTED by that paper and not independently verified by this desk.

### §4.3 Asia's session as narrative — the recovery that was quoted at midday (CONFIRMED closes; mid-session colour labelled)

The wires' mid-session framing — Asia "on steadier footing," KOSPI +2.35%, Nikkei +1.4%, futures green ([Reuters — Stocks recover from Nvidia whiplash, dollar climbs with US yields](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-11-13/?ref=narrativeflowintel.com)) — was accurate when published and incomplete by the close, which is the recurring failure this desk's Asia timing rule exists to prevent. The completed session reads: Tokyo stabilised on financials and equipment strength (Advantest +5% or more, Tokyo Electron near +3%, SoftBank −3% or more against the trend); Seoul's Kosdaq held roughly +1.5% while its large-cap, semi-heavy benchmark surrendered the entire open; Hong Kong fell for a second session on China-tech read-through of the Nvidia fallout; copper's four-month low in London on AI-demand fears, carried in the Reuters wrap, extends the demand-doubt thread beyond equities. The narrative layer's overnight output is therefore not "Asia recovered" but "Asia tested the recovery and returned a split verdict, failing it precisely where the AI supply chain is densest."

### §4.4 Standing items — classifications unchanged

Friday's calendar governs the next cycle: **08:30 ET October PPI** (consensus +0.4% m/m / +6.6% y/y, core +0.3% / +5.0% y/y, after September's +1.3% / +6.3% shock — [Morningstar / Dow Jones — Producer Prices on the Docket — Data Week Ahead](https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/2026111210518/producer-prices-on-the-docket-data-week-ahead?ref=narrativeflowintel.com)); Friday speakers Bowman and Jefferson; **Tuesday November 17** Nvidia's fiscal Q3 under the interim team; **November 18** the Kress company meeting and the standing congressional briefing track; **November 19** Anthropic's expected market debut; **December 3** the Senate Banking testimony date now in view. Cisco's and Applied Materials' Thursday-evening verdicts stand as scored in the evening edition (beat-and-raise faded to −0.39% after hours; beat-and-guide-above held +0.81% after hours — their first cash test is Friday's session). Nvidia's 8-K stands as filed: no reason, no severance terms, no statement on the investigation. The IRGC two-supertanker claim remains **UNCONFIRMED** (claimant-only, no vessel identity or UKMTO corroboration).

## §5 Event Timeline

| Event time                                        | Published time                                      | Market response                                                                 | Claim status                           |
| ------------------------------------------------- | --------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------- |
| Thu 16:00 ET (cash close)                         | Thu evening / overnight (final counts)              | SPX −0.35% with NYSE 583/2,143 and Nasdaq 1,163/3,741 decliner-led breadth      | CONFIRMED (counts as reported)         |
| Thu evening (Scott letters to Huang + Lutnick)    | Thu wires, consolidated overnight                   | No discrete futures leg identified; political file acquires a Dec 3 date        | CONFIRMED (letters, as reported)       |
| Thu 20:00 ET (Cboe Thu book, scheduled)           | Not published on retrieved series at 23:50 ET check | Flow layer silent for a second consecutive edition                              | Scheduled — publication lag            |
| Fri Asia session (JGB/UST trade)                  | Fri wires                                           | 10Y to 5.1433% (3-week high), 2Y to 4.8920% (1-month high); Dec 50bp odds 14.5% | CONFIRMED (prints/pricing as reported) |
| Fri 09:00–15:30 JST/KST (Asia cash)               | Fri wires + desk retrieval                          | Nikkei close +0.87%; KOSPI +2% open faded to −0.64% close; Hang Seng −0.92%     | CONFIRMED (closes)                     |
| Fri overnight (crypto)                            | Fri latest bars                                     | BTC below $70,000, near $68,600                                                 | Timestamped observation                |
| Fri 08:30 ET (October PPI)                        | Scheduled                                           | Pending — Friday editions                                                       | Scheduled                              |
| Tue Nov 17 (NVDA fiscal Q3)                       | Scheduled                                           | Pending                                                                         | Scheduled                              |
| Thu Dec 3 (Senate Banking testimony, as reported) | Scheduled                                           | Pending                                                                         | Scheduled                              |

**Attribution Verdict: MIXED.** The overnight decomposes into (a) fundamental repricing — the rates path repricing on realised inflation data and pre-committed official reaction functions (10-year at a three-week high, jumbo-hike tail at 14.5%), priced before Friday's PPI rather than after it; (b) voluntary institutional de-risking and rotation — Thursday's distribution now confirmed on exchange counts, the rival-rotation frame now carried by Street desks as consensus, Asia's semi bid fading voluntarily into its own close; and (c) standing structural/mechanical vulnerability — concentrated leadership in a founder transition whose internal investigation continues post-exit, semis and both major index ETFs below their 20-day averages, a >5% cost of capital, and a two-chamber congressional track with sworn-testimony dates. **Confirmed compulsory liquidation: NOT ESTABLISHED** — no direct documentation of forced selling exists in this cycle's sources; Seoul's fade, like Thursday's U.S. session, is a bid withdrawn, not a seller compelled, on every source retrieved. Coordinated manipulation / planned distribution: **NOT ESTABLISHED** — no credible direct evidence, and none is inferred from timing.

## §6 Risk Engine Decision → 🔴 RED MAINTAINED; DE-ESCALATION WITHHELD; ESCALATION WITHHELD

**Overall call: RED maintained.** For leveraged semiconductor exposure the meaning is unchanged and, overnight, marginally sharper: the complex trades below its 20-day averages, its leader is three trading sessions from an earnings print under an interim CEO, its most direct overseas supply-chain session just failed a follow-through test, and its cost of capital made overnight highs into a hot-consensus PPI with a jumbo-hike tail now priced at 14.5%. Nothing overnight removes a reason for the regime; the PPI is the first scheduled event that could.

### De-escalation Requirements

| Required confirmation                                                        | Status                                                                                                                                                                 |
| ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| Sustained semi leadership recovery (SOXX/SMH vs SPY/QQQ; reclaim of 20-DMAs) | ❌ NOT MET — SMH 501.73 vs 20-DMA 520.79; SOXX 154.99 vs 157.59; Seoul's semi-led fade is the opposite sign                                                             |
| Improving breadth with contracting Nasdaq new lows                           | ❌ NOT MET — final Thu counts retrieved and decisively negative (Nasdaq decliners 3,741 vs 1,163 advancers); no contracting-lows evidence                               |
| Reduced / normalising defensive flow (equity vs index judged separately)     | ⚠️ ADVANCED, NOT MET — equity leg MET on Wed book (0.59); index leg NOT MET (1.05 / SPX 1.08); Thu book unpublished at this edition's check (second consecutive cycle) |
| Verified cessation of any documented forced seller                           | ⚪ N/A — no forced seller has been documented; nothing to verify                                                                                                        |
| Normalised distribution / volume                                             | ❌ NOT MET — distribution confirmed on final counts; overnight added no U.S. cash session to normalise it                                                               |
| Positive catalyst follow-through                                             | ❌ NOT MET — CSCO/AMAT after-hours containment awaits Friday's cash test; Asia's session-level follow-through failed in Seoul                                           |

**Escalation statement:** escalation requires a NEW confirmed compulsory-liquidation event or the full alignment (bearish flow + breadth deterioration + leadership weakness + credible structural stress) in cash evidence. The overnight supplies stress without the missing cash pieces: VIX closed 18.70 (below 20), credit orderly on final prints, U.S. futures modestly green, no forced selling documented. Withheld — explicitly, not by omission. A hot Friday PPI that gaps the 10-year through its Asia high with tonight's futures bid sold at the cash open, Thursday's book (when it publishes) showing the index hedge building, and the VIX through 20 would assemble most of the alignment by Friday's close edition. **De-escalation statement:** withheld. The overnight's best facts — Tokyo's stabilising close, futures holding green, crude's premium easing a third of a percent, both Thursday earnings prints surviving their evening — fill no gate in the table, and the session that most resembles the complex (Seoul) actively failed its test. An index rebound alone would not confirm recovery in any case; Asia just demonstrated why, in completed form. **Invalidation:** the RED call is invalidated toward de-escalation only by the table filling in together in cash — semi leadership reclaiming 20-DMAs on joining breadth, Thursday's flow book (when published) showing the index hedge easing into strength, Cisco/AMAT bought and held in Friday's cash session, a PPI soft enough to pull the 10-year back under 5.00% and the jumbo-hike tail back toward zero, and the leader holding its repair through the November 17 print. It is invalidated toward escalation by any single documented forced-liquidation event, a VIX cash close above 20 with breadth breaking further, or a hot PPI that gaps yields and takes a second consecutive equity close with it.

## Final Intelligence Diagnosis

Options flow **remains unable to speak for the resignation session** — Thursday's Cboe book was still unpublished on the directly checked series at 23:50 ET, four hours after its scheduled release, so the flow layer rests on Wednesday's normalised-equity / persistent-index-hedge book and a maintenance-grade SKEW at 150.16 for a second consecutive edition. Market structure is **stressed and now fully documented at Thursday's grade**: decliners 3.7-to-1 and 3.2-to-1 on the two exchanges, credit orderly, the curve making overnight highs. U.S. price action **rests on Thursday's confirmed three-act close**, with overnight futures modestly green into the data. Asia price action **is the cycle's completed evidence and it is split**: Tokyo stabilised (+0.87% close), Seoul executed a full reversal from a +2% open to a −0.64% close where the AI supply chain is densest, and Hong Kong fell again (−0.92%). The narrative layer tightened on both of its live threads — the rates story acquired a priced jumbo-hike tail (14.5%, from zero in a week) ahead of the PPI, and the governance story acquired a Senate Banking date (December 3) with the Commerce Secretary inside its scope, while the investigating authority itself states the espionage allegation is unconcluded. Forced liquidation: **NOT ESTABLISHED**. Selling absorption: **BAD NEWS ABSORPTION at leader-only scope; FLOW ABSORPTION NOT MET; LIQUIDATION ABSORBED NOT VERIFIED.** Overall: a RED regime that spent the overnight confirming its distribution on final counts, extending its binding rates constraint, and watching its first global follow-through test fail in Seoul — with Friday 08:30 ET PPI as the next, and nearest, vote.

## Missing Evidence / DATA UNAVAILABLE

- **Thursday Cboe book** (all four series + SPXW) — scheduled 20:00 ET; still not present on the directly retrieved YCharts series at this edition's 23:50 ET check (latest published period remains Wednesday, November 11). The resignation session's flow is unscored for a second consecutive cycle by publication schedule; it will be scored in the first edition after it publishes, with the lag noted.
- **SOXX / SMH / MAGS constituent put/call ratios** — no fresh publication; carried at last published values in state, not re-printed as fresh.
- **Final Nasdaq new-low count** — the exchange advance/decline counts were retrieved this cycle (NYSE 583/2,143; Nasdaq 1,163/3,741); a final exchange-published Nasdaq new-low count was not separately retrieved — the 977 all-listed new-lows figure is a single aggregator count, held PROVISIONAL and unlinked, and is not used as a gate input.
- **Europe Friday session** — not yet open at edition time (pre-dawn in Europe); the only mark is the −0.37% EURO STOXX 50 futures indication from Asian trade.
- **The investigation's status and findings** — reporting holds the board's internal investigation continues post-resignation; no finding has been published; the Justice Department states its own inquiry is unconcluded; all underlying allegations remain at their prior grades.
- **Upstream email** — checked first this cycle; newest matching report id unchanged since October 29, so no upstream source publication exists for this cycle.

## Threads to watch

1. **Friday's PPI at 08:30 ET against a curve that has already moved** — consensus +0.4% m/m / +6.6% y/y with the 10-year at 5.1433% in Asia, the 2-year at a one-month high, and a 14.5% jumbo-hike tail priced: a hot print validates the overnight curve move and tests futures' modest green at the cash open; a soft print is the week's cleanest de-escalation input and would test whether Thursday evening's contained earnings reactions (CSCO/AMAT) convert into cash follow-through.
2. **Thursday's Cboe book, whenever it publishes** — now two editions overdue against its schedule: whether the equity leg stayed normalised through a −14% intraday low in the largest single name, and whether the index hedge (1.05 / SPX 1.08) built, held, or eased into the close. A book that never arrives on schedule is itself a data-integrity thread for this desk's flow layer.
3. **Whether the testimony track reprices the governance discount before November 17** — Scott's December 3 Senate Banking date puts Lutnick and export controls inside the same hearing frame as Huang; any board statement on the continuing internal investigation, or any scheduling confirmation for the pre-Thanksgiving House testimony, lands directly on the leader's multiple three sessions before its print.

*Market intelligence and analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.*

Sources: Reuters, investingLive, TradingKey, USA Today, BabyPips, WaveRider (Briefing.com closing wrap), Schaeffer's Research, Morningstar / Dow Jones, YCharts (Cboe series), Barron's, and this desk's own timestamped market retrieval (Thursday official closes; Friday Asia closes; latest futures, yield and crypto bars) — every key datapoint linked inline to the page actually retrieved; aggregator-only figures are named in text, unlinked, and provisional.